United StatesServices AdvisoryCash flow forecasting

Advisory

Cash flow forecasting for US businesses

A rolling forecast built from your ledger, updated as the month moves.

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What is cash flow forecasting?

A rolling forecast built from your ledger, updated as the month moves.

A cash flow forecast is only as current as its last data pull. Most forecasts a small business has seen are a spreadsheet somebody built during a fundraise or a bad quarter, with formulas for growth rates and a collections assumption typed in once — and then never touched again while the actual ledger keeps moving underneath it. Three months later the spreadsheet still says what it said in March, and nobody notices until the bank balance disagrees with the model by a number too large to explain. What we build instead is a forecast wired to the ledger: every close, the model pulls the actual receipts that landed, the actual payments that went out, and the actual AR and AP aging, and reconciles the prior week's projection against what really happened before projecting the next stretch forward.

The standard horizon is a rolling 13 weeks, refreshed weekly, because 13 weeks is the window where a cash problem is still solvable — a customer paying net-60 instead of net-30, a vendor pulling a discount, a payroll date landing awkwardly against a slow collections week. A monthly or quarterly forecast can show a business is fine on average and still miss the week in the middle of the quarter where the account nearly hits zero. The 13-week model is built bottom-up from named receipts (which invoices are expected, and when, based on actual customer payment history) and named payments (payroll dates, loan payments, recurring vendor bills, the quarterly estimated tax payment), not a smoothed growth curve applied to last month's total.

Why it matters

Without a systemWith CapEasy
Decisions made on last year’s numbersA forecast that is updated from the actual close
Pricing set by feelKnowing which work makes money and which does not
Cash surprises that were visible months earlierNumbers you can defend in a funding conversation

What we need from you

Foundation

  • A clean, current set of books
  • At least a few periods of history
  • Budget or plan, if one exists

Context

  • Pricing and cost structure
  • Headcount plan
  • Anything you are about to decide

How it runs, step by step

  1. Planning & forecasting
    • Cash flow forecasting
    • Budgeting and re-forecasting
    • Scenario modelling
  2. Profitability
    • Job, product or service profitability
    • Margin analysis
    • Cost optimisation review
  3. Financial modelling & valuation support
    • Three-statement models
    • Unit economics
    • Valuation analysis and supporting workings

Who does what

Your CapEasy teamCash flow forecasting, the reconciliations and reporting behind it, and the questions list that keeps it honest.
Your CPA or enrolled agentEverything that carries a licence in United States — rendered exactly as written: issue compilation, review or audit reports — those are restricted to licensed cpa firms.
YouOne conversation with one named person, and the decisions that are genuinely yours.

Cash flow forecasting in United States

A forecast is a planning model, not an attest engagement, under UAA §14(a)

The Uniform Accountancy Act §14(a) restricts compilation, review, and audit reports to licensed CPA firms — that restriction covers a report that expresses assurance on historical financial statements, not a forward-looking cash flow projection. A 13-week forecast is prospective financial information built from stated assumptions; it carries no attest opinion because none applies to it, and we say so on the forecast itself rather than let the format imply a level of assurance it does not carry.

Estimated tax payment dates are scheduled, not calculated

The forecast includes the federal quarterly estimated tax payment dates (typically mid-April, mid-June, mid-September, mid-January) as known cash outflows, because missing one distorts a weekly cash position as much as missing payroll. What the forecast does not do is calculate the estimated payment amount — that figure comes from the CPA's own quarterly estimate based on year-to-date income, and the forecast uses whatever number the CPA has provided, updated when the CPA revises it.

A cash-collection assumption is not a sales-tax nexus determination

When a forecast models collections from a growing base of out-of-state customers, it is projecting cash timing, not evaluating whether that revenue has created a sales tax filing obligation in those states. Nexus depends on state-specific economic thresholds and marketplace-facilitator rules that shift year to year, and that determination stays with the CPA. The forecast can flag that revenue from a new state has grown large enough to be worth a nexus check — it does not run that check itself.

A downside scenario is not a going-concern opinion

A scenario showing the cash balance would turn negative under a stress case (a delayed raise, a lost customer) is a planning exercise a founder uses to decide what to do before that happens — cut spend, accelerate collections, raise a bridge. It is not, and is never framed as, a going-concern determination, which is an audit-level judgment a CPA makes about a set of audited financial statements under AU-C 570. Flagging a runway risk early is the entire point of the forecast; declaring going-concern doubt is a different function entirely.

What your CPA or enrolled agent receives from us

  • A rolling 13-week cash flow forecast, refreshed weekly, built bottom-up from named expected receipts and named scheduled payments rather than a smoothed growth curve.
  • A weekly variance line comparing last week's projected cash position to what actually happened, with the delta explained in one line, not left as an unexplained gap.
  • A base-case, downside-case, and upside-case view of the same forecast, with the specific assumption that changes between cases stated explicitly (a payment delay, a slower collection cycle, a signed-but-unbilled contract).
  • An AR aging feed reconciled to the general ledger, used as the source for the forecast's receipt-timing assumptions rather than a separately maintained estimate.
  • An AP aging feed and a scheduled-payments calendar (payroll dates, loan payments, recurring vendor terms, quarterly estimated tax dates) driving the payment side of the model.
  • A written assumptions log — collection days by customer segment, payment terms by vendor category, hiring plan — kept separate from the numbers so anyone reviewing the forecast can see what it assumes, not just what it outputs.

Questions worth asking before you start

Who actually does the work — a person or an AI tool?

A named person on our team owns your file and reviews everything that leaves it. Software does a real share of the grinding underneath it — coding, matching, flagging the obvious gaps — but nothing regulated happens without a person’s judgement, and nothing here is signed or filed by an algorithm.

Is there a filing or lodging step here?

No — cash flow forecasting is operational work inside your books, not something submitted to IRS. Where a filing does sit downstream of it, inside advisory more broadly, that stays with your CPA or enrolled agent, never with us.

Which software do you work in?

Whatever you already run. Most commonly QuickBooks, Xero, NetSuite, Sage, Zoho Books and a handful of others — we work inside your system rather than moving you onto one of our own.

How does this actually start?

A short, free read-only look at what you already have, and a written note on what we found. A scoping call decides the size of the engagement — nothing here commits you to anything.

What does it cost?

There is no published price for cash flow forecasting — it depends on volume, how many entities are involved, and how far behind the books are. We quote after the read-only review, which is free.

How does this fit with the rest of advisory?

Cash flow forecasting sits inside advisory, alongside Runway analysis, Budgeting and forecasting, Margin analysis. Most clients end up buying the category as a whole rather than one leaf at a time, but starting narrow is fine.

Why 13 weeks specifically, instead of a monthly or quarterly forecast?

Thirteen weeks is roughly the window where a cash problem is still solvable — you can chase a slow-paying customer, delay a discretionary purchase, or line up a bridge before the account actually runs dry. A monthly forecast can show a healthy average for the quarter while missing the one week in the middle where the balance nearly hits zero.

How is this different from the spreadsheet a bookkeeper built us during our raise?

That spreadsheet was almost certainly built once, with assumptions typed in at the time, and never reconnected to the actual books afterward. Ours refreshes weekly directly from the reconciled ledger, so the receipts and payments in the model are what actually happened, not what someone guessed months ago.

What are the scenario toggles, exactly?

A base case built on your actual, observed payment behavior, plus a downside case (a customer pays late, a raise slips, a slow season runs long) and an upside case (a signed contract, faster collections). Each scenario shows the specific week your cash position would change, not just a vague sense that things would be tighter or looser.

Does the forecast include our tax payments?

Yes, as scheduled outflows — quarterly estimated tax payment dates, and 941 deposit dates where they apply — sourced from your CPA's calendar and amounts. That figure comes from your CPA's own calculation; we make sure a known payment doesn't collide unexpectedly with payroll or another large outflow in the model.

Can the forecast tell us if we owe sales tax in a new state?

No. It can show that revenue from a particular state has grown large enough to be worth checking, but the nexus determination itself — whether that revenue has actually created a filing obligation — goes to your CPA. Nexus rules are state-specific and change over time, so it's not something a cash model rules on.

Is a downside scenario the same thing as a going-concern warning?

No. A downside scenario is a planning exercise showing what happens to cash under a specific stressed assumption, so you can act before it happens. A going-concern opinion is an audit-level judgment a CPA makes on audited financial statements — a different function entirely, and not something a forecast issues.

How often does the forecast actually update?

Weekly is standard for the 13-week model, because payment timing shifts matter at that granularity. Each refresh compares last week's projection to what actually happened, so you can see whether the model is tracking reality or an assumption needs correcting.

What happens when an assumption turns out to be wrong — say, a customer starts paying slower?

It gets corrected at the next weekly refresh, and the summary states plainly what changed. A model that keeps running on a stale assumption without anyone flagging it is the exact failure the weekly reconciliation against actual AR aging is built to catch.

Who actually builds the forecast — is it automated?

AI pulls the transaction data, reconciles last week's projection against actuals, and flags variances outside the normal range. A named advisor reviews the model, sets or approves the scenario assumptions, and is accountable for the numbers before they reach you — the model doesn't sign off on itself.

What do you need from us to build the first forecast?

A reconciled general ledger, AR and AP aging detail, and your scheduled fixed outflows — payroll dates, loan payments, any recurring vendor terms outside the standard 30-day cycle. The forecast is only as accurate as the ledger and aging it starts from.

Can this replace the runway number my investors ask for?

The 13-week forecast and a runway calculation are related but distinct outputs — runway is a single burn-rate-and-date figure, usually derived from a longer monthly model, while the 13-week forecast is the weekly mechanics feeding it. If you need a standalone runway figure for investor reporting, that's built from the same underlying data as a separate deliverable.

Your CapEasy experts

Connect with us

Talk to the people who handle this work every day — no call centre, no hand-offs.

Ayush Joshi

Ayush Joshi

Co-Founder

Ex-OYO and Tenaciousfly. 7+ years in business development, strategic acquisitions, financing and debt syndication.

Aditya Jain

Aditya Jain

Co-Founder

Ex-Bank of America. 4+ years in investment banking, EU & Indian compliances, ESG compliances, and project management.

Manav Raval

Virtual CFO & Tax Specialist

Section 80-IAC, tax planning and startup compliance. Previously at Toyota Motor Corporation and Jaguar Land Rover.

Ayush Faldu

Virtual CFO & Tax Specialist

Financial strategy, budgeting and cash flow — a CFO’s judgement, monthly.

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